🇺🇸 Trump’s “Tariff Shock” on Brazil: Political and Economic Analysis

 

🇺🇸 Trump’s “Tariff Shock” on Brazil: Political and Economic Analysis

1. Political Context: Bolsonaro, Lula, and U.S. Retaliation

In January 2025, Donald Trump returned to the U.S. presidency, adopting an uncompromising protectionist stance. He directly linked the imposition of tariffs to accusations against Jair Bolsonaro, Brazil’s former allied president, currently on trial for attempted coup. In a letter to Lula, Trump labeled the process a “witch hunt” and justified the tariff hikes based on that (aljazeera.com, reuters.com).

Diplomatic tensions escalated with U.S. visa bans on Brazilian judges by Marco Rubio and Lula’s statements calling the move “unacceptable blackmail” (pt.wikipedia.org).

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2. Tariff Timeline

• March 12, 2025: Trump announces a 25% tariff on Brazilian steel and aluminum, effective immediately (brasildefato.com.br).

• April 2, 2025: A government document indicates possible tariffs on multiple Brazilian sectors (automotive, chemical, electronics, ethanol, etc.) (www1.folha.uol.com.br).

• April 5: Implementation of a 10% flat tariff on all Brazilian exports to the U.S., according to the Brazilian government (agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br).

• August 1, 2025: Scheduled start of a 50% tariff on all Brazilian exports to the U.S., announced on July 9 (pt.wikipedia.org).

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3. Economic Impacts: Key Sectors and Projections

• Steel and Aluminum: ArcelorMittal Brazil reported a 5–7% price drop for U.S.-bound products after the 25% tariff, with the U.S. being a key market (44% of its exports) (www1.folha.uol.com.br). Brazil’s steel industry employs about 121,000 workers (~2% of GDP), now facing lower demand and regional unemployment (brasildefato.com.br).

• Coffee and Orange Juice: Brazilian coffee exports to the U.S. totaled US$2 billion in 2024, accounting for 30% of U.S. consumption; orange juice supplies 42% of U.S. imports. With 50% tariffs, sales are projected to plummet, contracts canceled, and consumer prices rising (pt.wikipedia.org).

• Agribusiness Overall: Sharp declines are expected for beef (US$ 1.4 billion annually), soy, and citrus. FGVAgro estimated up to a 75% export loss in food products and a negative GDP impact of up to 0.4 p.p. in 2025 (upi.com).

• Chemicals and Resins: Exports worth US$ 2.4 billion in 2024 face contract cancellations and financing difficulties following tariff announcements (reuters.com).

• Macro Scenario: Projected annual export losses of US$ 12–17 billion (3.6–5% of total), GDP contraction of 0.3%–0.8% in 2025, and up to 100,000 jobs lost (upi.com, reuters.com).

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4. Brazil’s Political and Diplomatic Response

• The Brazilian government formally appealed to the WTO and passed the Commercial Reciprocity Act in July, preparing for retaliatory tariffs if the U.S. proceeds with the 50% hike (agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br).

• Lula declared Brazil would not accept “tutelage” and remained open to dialogue while preparing for a potential trade war, assembling an interministerial committee led by Vice President Alckmin to work with the private sector on negotiation proposals (upi.com, euronews.com, pt.wikipedia.org, reuters.com, apnews.com).

• International solidarity: BRICS countries, the EU, and China criticized the tariffs as coercive and WTO-inconsistent (pt.wikipedia.org).

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5. Political Shifts and Public Opinion

• Trump’s initiative inadvertently boosted Lula’s political standing, attracting support even from conservative and business sectors that see tariffs as an economic threat, while damaging Bolsonaro’s reputation, including among former allies who initially welcomed Trump’s move (apnews.com).

• The cultural phenomenon known as “vampetaço” went viral on social media, expressing public discontent through protests and memes defending Brazilian sovereignty (en.wikipedia.org).

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📌 Final Considerations

Trump’s “tariff shock” goes beyond traditional economic logic, entering the realm of international politics and diplomatic coercion.
Its economic effects are broad: key sectors such as agribusiness, steel, chemicals, and mining face real revenue losses, canceled contracts, and potential GDP decline. Politically, the move backfires on Bolsonaro while strengthening Lula’s image as a nationalist leader defending Brazil’s sovereignty, triggering strong domestic and international reactions.

The big question remains whether there is room for negotiation before the August 1, 2025 deadline. Otherwise, reciprocal measures under Brazil’s Commercial Reciprocity Act could escalate into a trade conflict.

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Main Sources:

• Reuters – economic impacts and trade balance (reuters.com, reuters.com, reuters.com, reuters.com)

• Folha de S.Paulo – steel industry and tariff outlook (www1.folha.uol.com.br, www1.folha.uol.com.br, brasildefato.com.br, upi.com)

• Agência Brasil and others – diplomatic responses and legal actions (pt.wikipedia.org)

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グローバル暗号資産市場の展望（2025年7月）

 世界の暗号資産市場は4兆ドルを突破しました。これは、米国でのGENIUS法の承認により、ステーブルコインに規制の枠組みが導入され、特にビットコインとイーサリアムの急激な値上がりを引き起こしたことが大きな要因です。2025年5月時点で、暗号資産市場の総額は3.46兆ドルと推定され、そのうち約59.7%をビットコインが占めています。今後2030年までの年平均成長率（CAGR）は9.7%～13.1%と予測され、市場規模は6兆ドルから11兆ドル以上に達すると見込まれています。

米国では、ビットコインおよびイーサリアムETFの承認により、暗号資産が年金基金、保険会社、大学の基金などの正当な資産クラスとして定着しました。グレースケールは旗艦ファンドをETFに転換し、ビットコイン価格は1BTC＝12万3,000ドルに迫る高値を付けました。この動きにより、ビットコインはナスダックやS&P500といった伝統的な株式指数との相関性が高まり、金融システムとの統合が進んでいます。

市場では**「アルトコインシーズン」**に突入しており、最近数週間でアルトコインがビットコインを上回るパフォーマンスを示しています。ビットコインのドミナンスは約7%低下し、ソラナ、ユニスワップ、XRP、さらにはミームコインまでが大幅に上昇しています。これは物語性と市場心理に強く依存した投機的サイクルを反映しており、保守的な投資家にとっては高リスクな環境です。

GENIUS法は2025年7月18日に署名され、米国における初の連邦ステーブルコイン規制を導入しました。これにより低リスク資産による1対1の裏付けと監査が義務付けられ、機関投資家の信頼を高めています。この動きは、2030年までにステーブルコイン市場が3.7兆ドルに拡大するとの予測につながっています。

他の地域では規制の進展が異なります。EUは2024年12月にMiCA規制を完全実施し加盟国間の暗号資産規制を統一しましたが、英国は依然として出遅れており、シンガポールやアブダビといった地域に競争力で遅れを取る可能性があります。

2025年7月23日、ビットコインは0.5%下落し1万1,7600ドル前後まで下落、アルトコインもXRP（−6.3%）、ETH（−1.3%）、ソラナ（−4.6%）、ドージコイン（−7.4%）とさらに大きな下落を見せました。特にビットコインやイーサリアム以外のファンドに関する規制不確実性が投資家心理を圧迫し、米連邦準備制度理事会（FRB）による発言への期待が市場を慎重にしています。

ラテンアメリカでは、アルゼンチン大統領ハビエル・ミレイが推進した**$LIBRAミームコイン**が話題となりました。このトークンは急騰した後に暴落し、2億5,000万ドルの投資損失と複数の詐欺捜査を招きました。これは政治的要素を帯びたトークンやバイラルな物語に基づく投資の危険性を浮き彫りにしています。

香港では2025年2月にASPIReロードマップが発表され、暗号資産企業の誘致、流動性分散の解消、DeFiと従来型トークンの統合を目指す取り組みが進められています。同市はデジタル資産の世界的ハブを目指しています。

現在注目されているのは現実資産のトークン化（RWA）です。不動産、株式、債券、預金などをトークンとしてデジタル化するもので、バンク・オブ・アメリカ、シティ、ブラックロックといった大手金融機関がこのモデルを採用しています。これにより流動性向上、投資アクセスの民主化、取引コスト削減が期待されており、市場規模は2,560億ドルから2028年には2兆ドルに成長すると予測されています。

イーサリアムは2024年3月にDencunアップグレードを実施し、レイヤー2の取引コストを大幅に削減しました。環境に配慮したカルダノやソラナなどのプロトコルが勢いを増し、相互運用性を強化するポルカドットやコスモス、zkロールアップ技術も進展し、スピード・プライバシー・スケーラビリティの向上が進んでいます。

規制はこれまでにない明確さを示しており、GENIUS法やMiCAなどの枠組みは機関資金を呼び込みつつあります。ビットコインは依然として支配的ですが、物語性や地域特有のハイプによりアルトコインが台頭しています。トークン化は次なるフロンティアとして期待され、伝統的金融市場を変革する可能性を秘めています。しかし、依然として市場はボラティリティが高く、投資家は規制リスクや技術リスクを慎重に評価する必要があります。

🌍 The Global Cryptocurrency Landscape (July 2025)

 

🌍 The Global Cryptocurrency Landscape (July 2025)

Market Size and Growth

The global cryptocurrency market has surged past $4 trillion, largely fueled by the approval of the GENIUS Act in the United States, which created a regulatory framework for stablecoins and triggered a sharp appreciation, especially in Bitcoin and Ethereum. As of May 2025, the total market value was estimated at $3.46 trillion, with Bitcoin accounting for roughly 59.7% of the total. Forecasts point to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) between 9.7% and 13.1% through 2030, with market projections ranging from $6 trillion to more than $11 trillion.

Institutional Adoption and Financial Products

In the U.S., the approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs has cemented crypto assets as a legitimate asset class for pension funds, insurers, and university endowments. Grayscale converted its flagship Digital Large Cap Fund into an ETF, while Bitcoin approached record highs near $123,000 per coin. This movement increased Bitcoin’s correlation with traditional indices like the Nasdaq and S&P 500, signaling deeper integration with the conventional financial system.

The Rise of Altcoins and Speculative Cycles

The market is entering an “altcoin season”, with altcoins outperforming Bitcoin over recent weeks. Bitcoin’s dominance has dropped by around 7%, while tokens such as Solana, Uniswap, XRP, and even memecoins are showing strong gains. This reflects a speculative cycle, heavily driven by narrative and sentiment, and represents higher risk for conservative investors.

Stablecoins: From Volatility to Stability

The GENIUS Act, signed on July 18, 2025, introduced the first U.S. federal regulation for stablecoins, requiring one-to-one backing with low-risk assets and mandatory audits. This boosted institutional confidence and is projected to push the stablecoin market to $3.7 trillion by 2030.

Elsewhere, regulatory paths differ: the EU fully implemented its MiCA framework in December 2024, harmonizing crypto regulation across member states, while the U.K. still lags behind, potentially losing competitiveness to hubs like Singapore and Abu Dhabi.

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📉 Volatility and Hype-Driven News

Bitcoin and Altcoins Correct

On July 23, 2025, Bitcoin fell 0.5% to about $117,600, sliding from its recent highs, while altcoins such as XRP (−6.3%), ETH (−1.3%), Solana (−4.6%), and Dogecoin (−7.4%) experienced sharper losses. Regulatory uncertainty, especially concerning non-Bitcoin/Ethereum funds, weighed on investor sentiment. Anticipation around Federal Reserve comments also kept markets cautious.

Hype in Latin America

A notable example of hype in the region was the case of the $LIBRA memecoin, promoted by Argentina’s President Javier Milei. After skyrocketing in price, the token collapsed, leaving $250 million in investor losses and prompting multiple fraud investigations. It highlights the dangers of politically driven tokens and viral narratives.

New Regulatory Hubs

In Hong Kong, the SFC rolled out its ASPIRe roadmap in February 2025, with initiatives designed to attract crypto companies, reduce liquidity fragmentation, and integrate DeFi and traditional tokens into a regulated ecosystem. The city aims to position itself as a global digital asset hub.

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🧩 Structural Innovations and Emerging Trends

Tokenization of Real-World Assets

The most talked-about trend today is tokenization of real-world assets (RWAs), such as real estate, stocks, bonds, and deposits. Major financial institutions like Bank of America, Citi, and BlackRock are exploring these models, which promise greater liquidity, democratized access, and lower transaction costs. Analysts expect the tokenized asset market to grow from $256 billion to as high as $2 trillion by 2028.

Technology Advances

Ethereum implemented its Dencun upgrade in March 2024, slashing Layer‑2 transaction costs. Eco-friendly protocols like Cardano and Solana continue to gain traction, while interoperability solutions (Polkadot, Cosmos) and zk‑rollups enhance speed, privacy, and scalability.

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✅ Conclusion: Opportunity Amid Uncertainty

• Regulation, especially in the U.S. and EU, is reaching unprecedented levels of clarity — the GENIUS Act and MiCA are landmark frameworks attracting institutional capital.

• Bitcoin remains dominant, but altcoins are gaining traction thanks to narratives and region-specific hype cycles.

• Tokenization is emerging as the next frontier, poised to transform traditional financial markets.

• Despite global growth, volatility remains high, fueled by narrative-driven cycles and technical corrections.

• Investors are advised to use conservative strategies, diversify through regulated ETFs or modest allocations (1%–5%), and carefully assess regulatory and technological risks.

In short, the sector is transitioning toward institutional maturity while still carrying high levels of speculation and regulatory uncertainty across jurisdictions.

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Quer que eu também reduza ainda mais a similaridade com fontes públicas (para uso seguro em blogs) aplicando um estilo mais jornalístico e menos técnico? Ou prefere que eu mantenha o tom analítico, estilo relatório financeiro?